Category archive

China

Shadow Over Asia

in China/Macro

Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics I really would not change anything.

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The China Syndrome

in China/FP: Latest/Macro

MOST PEOPLE are convinced by now that there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next? The answer will depend on how much debt is in the system. The more debt infesting the system, the further and steeper asset price declines will be and the…

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Seek out people who disagree with you; The budget deficit is a stimulus; China = post-bubble Japan?

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/The Process

I am back from Buffett’s Omaha.  Every year I come back feeling supercharged for the year ahead.  This year was no different.  From morning till night I had the pleasure of sharing and debating ideas with investors from all over the world.  Though I did not plan it this way, the first day I had…

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Interview with Advisor Perspectives

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/Japan/Macro/Stock Analysis

I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives.  I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s  latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and…

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The Chinese Black Swan

in China/FP: Latest/Macro

Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse. China is slowly starting to face the consequences of its actions — loans grew over 30% a…

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$1.3 Billion Burj Khalifa 2.0 is Brilliant!

in China/Else/FP: Latest

Earlier this week we saw reports that “Beijing authorities plan to build a “seven-star hotel” modelled after Dubai’s Burj Khalifa — the world’s tallest building — in a $1.3 billion joint project with Saudi Arabia.” Yes, the same building that symbolized Dubai’s $20-plus billion in malinvestments and required a bailout by Abu Dhabi. In Russian…

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Interview with Adviser Perspectives

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/Macro

To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, “Giving interviews is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing.” With the new book out, I have the pleasure and the opportunity to perfect that art. My latest interview, with my friend Bob Huebscher of Adviser Perspectives, is below; and here are links to my interviews with John Mihalijevic of Manual of…

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Poststeroid Economics

in China/FP: Latest/Japan

Here is my latest article in the October issue of Institutional Investor Poststeroid Economics By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson During the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it (or even paying attention to market cycles) seemed like a waste of time, as the economy came in only three…

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Musings on Kids and Asia

in China/FP: Latest/Japan

I have not written articles in a few months, except for the one I wrote for the July issue of Institutional Investor magazine, on Japan (I’ll post a link once the magazine comes out)..  I am sure Freud, after spending a few minutes in my subconscious, would provide some disturbing explanations.  But as Freud said,…

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