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On Yahoo! Breakout

Interview with Matt Nesto, segment 1: HP, Xerox, Vivendi (we own all of them) Segment 2: China

The Chinese Black Swan

Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse. China is slowly starting to face the consequences of its actions — loans grew over 30% a […]

Video from China/Japan Presentation and DC Trip

I gave a presentation on China/Japan at the “Rethinking Seminar” at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.  My presentation was videotaped; video (both streaming and download), audio, and even cliff notes may be found here (by the way, make sure to take a look at other presentations on their website).  Also, I updated my slides […]

Set the Bar High

The Ups and Downs of Flying I am a very nervous flyer.  Whenever there is a little bit of turbulence, I look out the window, see shaking wings, and start to wonder whether they’ll keep holding the plane up.  Then my rational self kicks in, and I tell myself that statistically it is safer flying […]

$1.3 Billion Burj Khalifa 2.0 is Brilliant!

Earlier this week we saw reports that “Beijing authorities plan to build a “seven-star hotel” modelled after Dubai’s Burj Khalifa — the world’s tallest building — in a $1.3 billion joint project with Saudi Arabia.” Yes, the same building that symbolized Dubai’s $20-plus billion in malinvestments and required a bailout by Abu Dhabi. In Russian […]

Interview with Adviser Perspectives

To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, “Giving interviews is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing.” With the new book out, I have the pleasure and the opportunity to perfect that art. My latest interview, with my friend Bob Huebscher of Adviser Perspectives, is below; and here are links to my interviews with John Mihalijevic of Manual of […]

China – The Mother of All Grey Swans

I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.  Here is a link to my updated presentation on China and Japan (Japan starts on slide 40).

Poststeroid Economics

Here is my latest article in the October issue of Institutional Investor Poststeroid Economics By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson During the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it (or even paying attention to market cycles) seemed like a waste of time, as the economy came in only three […]

Shadow over Asia

The summer is over in Denver.  Of course, in Denver the summer was officially over Labor Day weekend, when the outdoor swimming pools were drained and locked for the winter.  For most people summer ended a few weeks later, when the leaves turned bright yellow.  But not me, I wanted to hang on to this […]