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The Market Right Now Doesn’t Care How Fantastic Your Stocks Are

Listen on: iTunes | Google Podcasts | Online The Roman philosopher Seneca wasn’t talking about the stock market when he wrote that “Time discovers truth,” but he could have been. In the long run a stock price will reflect a company’s (true) intrinsic value. In the short run the pricing is basically random. Here are two real-life examples. Let’s say […]

Why Investors Hate Apple — and Are Dead Wrong

In this article I don’t discuss Apple’s valuation, balance sheet, or financials.  I covered these topics in great detail in these articles a few months ago (Part 1: Psychology and Part 2: Value of Ecosystem). Nothing has really changed since, except that Apple announced an enormous share buyback.  This article focuses on Apple’s products, innovation, […]

Why Windows 8 Made Me Sell MSFT

I sang love serenades to Microsoft in the December issue, but a few weeks ago we sold our shares of Microsoft. Because we believe the stock is undervalued, that decision was not easy. What changed? A very important part of my thesis was the success of Windows 8, an operating system that Microsoft made for both PCs and […]

Microsoft Is Not as Boring as it Appears

I am bored and exhausted. I am on my third cup of coffee, but my lack of excitement has not changed, as I am about to explain why the sleepiest, most boring stock in the universe—Microsoft Corp.—offers a very compelling reward with very reasonable risk. Microsoft was the bright light in the tech firmament in […]

I am back!

I am back!  It was an amazing trip.  It started with Warren Buffett’s Omaha.  I flew into Omaha on Thursday morning, and a few hours later received a call from the CFA Society of Nebraska, asking me to give a talk to their members.  Whitney Tilson and his partner Glen were supposed to do a […]

Microsoft Debt Issuance Makes Zero Economic Sense

Tuesday’s  headline from the WSJ reads: “Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)  to offer up to  $1.25 billion in 3-year convertible notes.” The software company will use the sales proceeds to repay short-term debt. If it was any other company I’d ignore this headline as a daily noise as this kind of things happens all the time. But Microsoft […]

Random thoughts, Stocks for the Long-Run, no more

My doctor said that my bad cholesterol is high, and of course my good cholesterol is low, and I’m too fat (well, actually the wife said that). So, instead of following the fine American tradition of supersizing my Big Mac with Lipitor, I’ve decided to take a slightly different route – I tweaked my diet: […]

Microsoft’s best week in quite a while

Call it the wishful thinking of the guy who owns stock, but the news flow from the company this week was excellent: Microsoft (MSFT) MSFT did something very uncharacteristic. It did not push back the release of Windows 7, which will be released on Oct. 22. Bing is excellent. I played with it for a […]