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The Market Right Now Doesn’t Care How Fantastic Your Stocks Are

Listen on: iTunes | Google Podcasts | Online The Roman philosopher Seneca wasn’t talking about the stock market when he wrote that “Time discovers truth,” but he could have been. In the long run a stock price will reflect a company’s (true) intrinsic value. In the short run the pricing is basically random. Here are two real-life examples. Let’s say […]

Why Investors Hate Apple — and Are Dead Wrong

In this article I don’t discuss Apple’s valuation, balance sheet, or financials.  I covered these topics in great detail in these articles a few months ago (Part 1: Psychology and Part 2: Value of Ecosystem). Nothing has really changed since, except that Apple announced an enormous share buyback.  This article focuses on Apple’s products, innovation, […]

How HP Can Navigate the Information Superhighway

Когда Hewlett-Packard Co. обсуждается в средствах массовой информации, она изображается как компьютерная компания. На первый взгляд, это имеет смысл: HP является крупнейшим производителем ПК в мире, а персональные компьютеры приносят 30 процентов дохода. Но – и это очень важно, но – ПК сегодня представляют только 10 процентов операционной прибыли HP. Кроме того, несмотря на общепринятое […]

Why Windows 8 Made Me Sell MSFT

I sang love serenades to Microsoft in the December issue, but a few weeks ago we sold our shares of Microsoft. Because we believe the stock is undervalued, that decision was not easy. What changed? A very important part of my thesis was the success of Windows 8, an operating system that Microsoft made for both PCs and […]

Microsoft Is Not as Boring as it Appears

I am bored and exhausted. I am on my third cup of coffee, but my lack of excitement has not changed, as I am about to explain why the sleepiest, most boring stock in the universe—Microsoft Corp.—offers a very compelling reward with very reasonable risk. Microsoft was the bright light in the tech firmament in […]

I am back!

I am back!  It was an amazing trip.  It started with Warren Buffett’s Omaha.  I flew into Omaha on Thursday morning, and a few hours later received a call from the CFA Society of Nebraska, asking me to give a talk to their members.  Whitney Tilson and his partner Glen were supposed to do a […]

Microsoft Debt Issuance Makes Zero Economic Sense

Tuesday’s  headline from the WSJ reads: “Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)  to offer up to  $1.25 billion in 3-year convertible notes.” The software company will use the sales proceeds to repay short-term debt. If it was any other company I’d ignore this headline as a daily noise as this kind of things happens all the time. But Microsoft […]

Microsoft – Is Not Over Until it is Over

 I’ve received a few emails asking my thoughts on Microsoft’s (MSFT) quarter.  Here is my take: this is probably the least meaningful quarter in the company’s recent history.  MSFT is about to introduce Windows 7 (and a slew of other products.) If I were a corporate customer, I wouldn’t be buying Windows Vista now if […]