The Process
Don’t Drink Market’s Kool Aid
Here is a joke that I heard from Warren Buffet years back. A very successful oilman dies. He faces Saint ...
Investment Process Presentation
Presentation that describes my firm’s investment process. AVI Omaha 2012
Playing a Game of Economic Survivor
I don’t do writing assignments. I don’t like deadlines. I am not a writer; I am an investor who thinks through writing. So when Institutional Investor asked me to write on the future of investing, my instinct was to politely decline. But the topic did seem intriguing. So I decided to give it a try.
For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do
Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for ...
Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number
Mark Twain said, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” To a Fed – an institution ...
We Are Not AAA
I have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the ...
VALUEx Vail 2011 – Thoughts from the conference
VALUEx Vail 2011 is over. I already miss these three days. I got the idea to put together VALUEx Vail ...
Creighton Value Investing Panel
While in Omaha attending the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting I had the pleasure of participating on a Value Investing Panel at Creighton University. Ben Claremon from Inoculated Investor ...
Margin Shrinkage – It Can Happen to You
Profit margins are a tick away from all-time highs and are creating the impression of cheap equity valuations. But that ...
Set the Bar High
The Ups and Downs of Flying I am a very nervous flyer. Whenever there is a little bit of turbulence, ...
U.S. Must “Man Up and Take the Pain” or We’ll Become Japan
"Lower taxes and borrow money to finance it," pretty much sounds like U.S. fiscal policy during the Bush years.
QE2: Beware the Perils of its Success
Over the next eight months the Federal Reserve will conduct QE2 – quantitative easing, the sequel. It will buy $600 billion worth of US long-term bonds in the open market.
Shadow over Asia
I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.
Don’t call me Dr. Doom, call me Mr. Realist
The current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus.
The China Bubble’s Coming — But Not the One You Think
Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there's a bubble - and if so, when it's going to burst.
You are not as smart as you think you are
Lately I’ve been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game?
The pain of mean reversion
The stock market has dropped. Corporate profits have collapsed. And profit margins have reverted toward the mean. What is next?
The Process
Successful investing is about following a successful, time-proven process in good and bad times. Of course, the problem with the process - it may produce rather painful results.
Chinese and Starbucks Late Stage Growth Obesity
What do Starbucks and China have in common? A lot! Both got us hooked on consumption: one of fancy, expensive caffeinated liquids; the other on cheap foreign made goods.
Forbes Praises Active Value Investing
The new Benjamin Graham is Vitaliy N. Katsenelson. I highly recommend Katsenelson's book, Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-Bound Markets
Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?
Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment portfolio.