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China – The Mother of All Black Swans

Chinese economy – it has tremendous overcapacity in the commercial and residential real estate and industrial sectors as you see from this presentation: China – The Mother of All Black Swans – By Vitaliy Katsenelson <

Jamie Dimon’s Thoughts on Chinese Banking System

 If I were a prosecutor I’d be thanking Al Gore for inventing the internet and email (I don’t know if Mr. Vice President claimed the email invention, but without the internet there is no email).  Especially email, because now you can amass evidence of wrongdoing in a very searchable and easy-to-use format.  TheStreet.com has dug […]

Chinese Quest for Shortcut to Greatness

The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on the economy. When you pump a stimulus package that represents 14% of GDP through a fire hose into an economy, which was already on shaky bubble foundation, in a […]

China vs. the World

 This paragraph, taken from a SocGen research report by Dylan Grice (one of the few sell-side folks worth reading, along with Albert Edwards, also at SocGen), sums up the dichotomy between how investors look at China and the rest of the world. Trading on a lowly 0.5x book value, Lloyds (LYG 5.1 ↓2.49%) is clearly […]

Another confirmation of Chinese not-so-miracle growth

Electricity was not the only economic statistic not controlled / calculated by the Chinese government that showed that the 6% plus GDP growth in the first six months of 2009 (at a time when the global economy was sliding off the cliff) was an accounting miracle.   Guangshen Railway announced its results a few days ago […]

Beating a Dead Horse

I know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse how much printer cartridge can one spill over China?  – but I have a very high burden of proof to overcome.  Let me demonstrate it by this analogy:  Let’s rewind 20 years.  It is 1989 and I am writing that the Japanese economy is […]

Interview with BNN: You Kiddin’ Me?

After I wrote the last note about China’s creative calculation of its GDP, a friend wrote: “So what?  Who cares what is going on in China?”  If the Chinese economy was the size of the Vietnamese economy, and it was not responsible for more than 2/3 of our trade deficit and didn’t hold $2.2 trillion […]

China’s growth an accounting miracle

I hope you are enjoying the last month of summer.  I’ve gone fishing twice this month – caught absolutely nothing.  Actually I don’t think I’ve caught a single fish over the last five years.  But I’ve been mainly reading, listening to music and drinking beer while I was fishing.  So the fish probably did not […]

Reappraising China’s ‘Staggering’ Growth

 I am not writing this under duress, neither my family nor I were kidnapped by the Chinese government; I simply made a mistake in my last note about China called “Simple Math of Chinese ‘Staggering’ Growth” and would like to correct it.  The Chinese non-export economy is not growing at a 23% rate.  This figure […]