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Set the Bar High

The Ups and Downs of Flying I am a very nervous flyer.  Whenever there is a little bit of turbulence, I look out the window, see shaking wings, and start to wonder whether they’ll keep holding the plane up.  Then my rational self kicks in, and I tell myself that statistically it is safer flying […]

$1.3 Billion Burj Khalifa 2.0 is Brilliant!

Earlier this week we saw reports that “Beijing authorities plan to build a “seven-star hotel” modelled after Dubai’s Burj Khalifa — the world’s tallest building — in a $1.3 billion joint project with Saudi Arabia.” Yes, the same building that symbolized Dubai’s $20-plus billion in malinvestments and required a bailout by Abu Dhabi. In Russian […]

Interview with Adviser Perspectives

To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, “Giving interviews is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing.” With the new book out, I have the pleasure and the opportunity to perfect that art. My latest interview, with my friend Bob Huebscher of Adviser Perspectives, is below; and here are links to my interviews with John Mihalijevic of Manual of […]

China – The Mother of All Grey Swans

I had the pleasure of presenting my thesis on China and Japan at the Casey Research Summit in San Diego in early October.  Here is a link to my updated presentation on China and Japan (Japan starts on slide 40).

Poststeroid Economics

Here is my latest article in the October issue of Institutional Investor Poststeroid Economics By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson During the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it (or even paying attention to market cycles) seemed like a waste of time, as the economy came in only three […]

Shadow over Asia

The summer is over in Denver.  Of course, in Denver the summer was officially over Labor Day weekend, when the outdoor swimming pools were drained and locked for the winter.  For most people summer ended a few weeks later, when the leaves turned bright yellow.  But not me, I wanted to hang on to this […]

Musings on Kids and Asia

I have not written articles in a few months, except for the one I wrote for the July issue of Institutional Investor magazine, on Japan (I’ll post a link once the magazine comes out)..  I am sure Freud, after spending a few minutes in my subconscious, would provide some disturbing explanations.  But as Freud said, […]

China: the coming costs of a superbubble

Christian Science Monitor approached me to write an article on China after they saw my presentation – China the Mother of All Black Swans.  This article is a combination of this presentation and articles I’ve written in the past.  It was published in the March 16th paper.   China: the coming costs of a superbubble China may […]

Don’t call me Dr. Doom, call me Mr. Realist

 I had an interesting conversation last week with a potential investor.  I described my thoughts on the US economy, explaining that in our (my firm’s) view the current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus.  (I’ve written about it in this […]