As seen on:
X
LOADING

Here is what our readers say:

"Thanks for your ideas and advice over the last few years" D.M.
"You are one of the most interesting, talented writers I know" A.G.
"I look forward to your emails. They are among the very few that pass my screen." J.C.
"The world needs more of voices like yours" B.W.
"I don't know anyone else that writes like you, shares market points of view like you, and makes things seem personal and approachable!" J.C.
"Thanks for your ideas and advice over the last few years." D.M.

Playing a Game of Economic Survivor

I don’t do writing assignments. I don’t like deadlines. I am not a writer; I am an investor who thinks through writing. So when Institutional Investor asked me to write on the future of investing, my instinct was to politely decline. But the topic did seem intriguing. So I decided to give it a try.

The China Syndrome

MOST PEOPLE are convinced by now that there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next? The answer will depend on how much debt is in the system. The more debt infesting the system, the further and steeper asset price declines will be and the […]

For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do

Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for the PIIGS to start dropping like flies, taking the rest of the euro zone and the global economy with them. Unlikely! European monetary union was a great experiment that made a lot of sense on […]

We Are Not AAA

I have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the downgrade? So I decided to put my thoughts on paper.  I break up the consequences into three categories: fundamental (the impact on the economy), emotional (the short-term impact on the market), and political (will it […]

The Chinese Black Swan

Party rulers in China are trapped in a position that chess players deeply fear — zugzwang — where any move made puts you at disadvantage. In China, the potential cost of both action and inaction is economic collapse. China is slowly starting to face the consequences of its actions — loans grew over 30% a […]

Set the Bar High

The Ups and Downs of Flying I am a very nervous flyer.  Whenever there is a little bit of turbulence, I look out the window, see shaking wings, and start to wonder whether they’ll keep holding the plane up.  Then my rational self kicks in, and I tell myself that statistically it is safer flying […]

Interview with Adviser Perspectives

To paraphrase Nassim Taleb, “Giving interviews is the art of repeating oneself without anyone noticing.” With the new book out, I have the pleasure and the opportunity to perfect that art. My latest interview, with my friend Bob Huebscher of Adviser Perspectives, is below; and here are links to my interviews with John Mihalijevic of Manual of […]

Japan: Land of the Rising Debt

Two decades of stimulative, low-interest-rate fiscal policy have made Japan the most indebted nation in the developed world

The Second Edition of the First Part of My Book (free)

 Here is a link to the presentation/speech of my book. This presentation/speech qualifies as a second (free) edition of the first part of my book – the part that explains why we are likely suffering through a range-bound market.  I updated the data; found a better way to explain old and new topics; changed my mind […]

Econ 101: Credit Card Fees

Banks opened a dirty, ugly Pandora’s box when they destroyed their balance sheets to the point that the Federal government HAD to bail them out.   Unfortunately now they’ll be paying for it, dearly. President Obama is going after their credit card fees and will likely not stop there. Our government will start setting interest rates banks can charge […]