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	<title>Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge &#187; GSK</title>
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	<link>http://ContrarianEdge.com</link>
	<description>Vitaliy Katsenelson blog on the economy, stock market, and stocks.  Applying Active Value Investing approach.</description>
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		<title>The Truth Is In&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/07/02/the-truth-is-in/</link>
		<comments>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/07/02/the-truth-is-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jul 2007 18:36:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Vitaliy Katsenelson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GSK]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JNJ]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Who ever said, &#8220;vino veritas&#8221; (in wine, there is truth), hasn&#8217;t written enough. I say, &#8220;in writing veritas.&#8221;   MarketWatch asked me to write an article about one&#8217;s investment strategy in the interest rate environment on the horizon.  When I first sat down to write, I thought that I was a bit neutral on the direction of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;">Who ever said, &#8220;vino veritas&#8221; (in wine, there is truth), hasn&#8217;t written enough. I say, &#8220;in writing veritas.&#8221;   MarketWatch asked me to write <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/how-play-volatile-interest-rates/story.aspx?guid=%7B20F3EC7D%2D9979%2D4A15%2D8B88%2DA7F4D2EAC162%7D">an article</a> about one&#8217;s investment strategy in the interest rate environment on the horizon.  When I first sat down to write, I thought that I was a bit neutral on the direction of interest rates. However, by the time I finished (as you&#8217;ll see), it was painfully obvious that interest rates are more likely to go down than up. It&#8217;s a story of global prosperity that has been in part prepped up by finite sources (mostly debt).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I would not bet my career or even a bottle of fine beer (Fat Tire &#8211; those in Colorado will know), but there are too many &#8220;uncertainties&#8221; on the horizon for higher interest rates.  In the article, I offered two stocks, Glaxosmithkline (GSK) and Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ)  that should do well in any interest rate environment.</p>
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		<title>Love Serenades and New Flings</title>
		<link>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/03/29/love-serenades-and-new-flings/</link>
		<comments>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/03/29/love-serenades-and-new-flings/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 03:33:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Vitaliy Katsenelson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BSX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GSK]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[By Vitaliy Katsenelson I sang love serenades for Abbott Labs&#8217; (ABT) stock for a long time. Call me materialistic, but my love for stocks is not &#8216;til death do us part,&#8217; it is conditional of fundamentals staying intact and of valuation &#8211; it has to be undervalued. Abbott Labs&#8217; fundamentals have improved over the last couple [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;">By <a href="http://contrarianedge.com">Vitaliy Katsenelson</a></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I sang <a href="http://contrarianedge.com/2005/07/13/why-i-am-still-in-love-with-abbott/">love serenades</a> for Abbott Labs&#8217; (ABT) stock for a long time. Call me materialistic, but my love for stocks is not &lsquo;til death do us part,&rsquo; it is conditional of fundamentals staying intact and of valuation &#8211; it has to be undervalued. Abbott Labs&#8217; fundamentals have improved over the last couple of years &#8211; it sold its medical device unit to General Electric (GE) at a great premium and it &ldquo;stole&rdquo; a stent business from Guidant playing on Boston Scientific&#8217;s (BSX) urgent need to close the deal. Abbott&rsquo;s management have proven the company to be a very shrewd operator. However, Abbott did what any good stock will do at some point (hopefully) &ndash; it appreciated and became fully valued. Though I still love the company, I had to say goodbye to Abbott&rsquo;s stock. Hopefully, I&rsquo;ll be able to buy it in the future on my terms, at a lower price.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">I found a new &lsquo;fling&rsquo; &#8211; Glaxo Smithkline (GSK) &ndash; Abbott&rsquo;s worthy replacement. GSK reminds me of Abbot&#8217;s stock about two years ago: decent (very similar to ABT) growth prospects ahead (earnings growth of about 7-8% a year) further helped by a growing industry, a strong balance sheet, great return on capital of close to 40%, fat 20% plus profit margins, and a competitive moat around its business that rivals the size of Lake Michigan. All that coupled with great valuation of about 14x earnings and 3.3% dividend yield. On top of all that it comes with an added bonus, its dividend is paid in pounds and converted to dollars &ndash; if the dollar decline continues (my expectation), its earnings and dividends will rise in US dollars.</p>
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