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	<title>Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge &#187; BDX</title>
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		<title>Don&#8217;t Let Bull Market Convince You That You Are Smart</title>
		<link>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/24/dont-let-bull-market-convince-you-that-you-are-smart/</link>
		<comments>http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/24/dont-let-bull-market-convince-you-that-you-are-smart/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Feb 2007 13:32:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Vitaliy Katsenelson</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BDX]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>By <a href="http://contrarianedge.com/">Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA</a> <br />
February 24, 2007</p>
<p><a href="http://contrarianedge.com/wp-content/themes/blix-091/images/text/DontLetBullMarketConvinceYouThatYouAreSm_5C0D/sell4.jpg"><img style="margin: 5px; border: 0px" height="114" src="http://contrarianedge.com/wp-content/themes/blix-091/images/text/DontLetBullMarketConvinceYouThatYouAreSm_5C0D/sell_thumb2.jpg" width="166" align="left" border="0" /></a> Lately I've been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game? Did I find a secret to Will Rogers' advice? Buy stocks that go up, and if they don't go up, don't buy them.</p>
<p>No, I didn't get much smarter, and my stock picking skills haven't improved that much over the past year. I was simply a willing participant in the latest (cyclical) bull market. A bull market makes you feel smarter than you are the same way a bear market makes you feel dumber than you are. Feeling smart makes you do the opposite of what you should be doing. The euphoria of the golden touch is a dangerous thing because it can make you (and me) careless. We forget about risk since we haven't seen it in a while and focus only on our rewards. You have to actively make yourself aware of the four-letter word <em>R-I-S-K</em>!</p>
<p>How do you do that? My favorite way is to remind myself how "dumb" I am. I pull out an annual return report of a company on which I lost a boatload of money and masochistically try to read it from cover to cover, reliving my "dumbness."</p>
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			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/other_business/article/0,2777,DRMN_23916_5374429,00.html">Rocky Mountain News</a></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Lately I&#8217;ve been getting this powerful feeling that everything I touch turns to gold. Every time I buy a stock, it goes up. Did I finally figure out the stock market game? Did I find a secret to Will Rogers&#8217; advice? Buy stocks that go up, and if they don&#8217;t go up, don&#8217;t buy them.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">No, I didn&#8217;t get much smarter, and my stock picking skills haven&#8217;t improved that much over the past year. I was simply a willing participant in the latest (cyclical) bull market. A bull market makes you feel smarter than you are the same way a bear market makes you feel dumber than you are. Feeling smart makes you do the opposite of what you should be doing. The euphoria of the golden touch is a dangerous thing because it can make you (and me) careless. We forget about risk since we haven&#8217;t seen it in a while and focus only on our rewards. You have to actively make yourself aware of the four-letter word R-I-S-K!<span id="more-166"></span>
</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">How do you do that? My favorite way is to remind myself how &#8220;dumb&#8221; I am. I pull out an annual return report of a company on which I lost a boatload of money and masochistically try to read it from cover to cover, reliving my &#8220;dumbness.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">We all have these stocks, the ones we lost a lot of money in because we were overconfident. We tend to forget about them during the bull market phase. But I suggest you remember them now, so you&#8217;ll have fewer of those names to remember in the future. Risk is still there; it is just hiding under the joyful sentiment of the bull market. Believe me, it will show its ugly face. It is just a matter of time.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In the bull market, it is easy to forget about selling discipline and then turn into a &#8220;buy and forget to sell&#8221; investor. Every time you sell a stock you look dumb because it usually goes up afterward. I recently sold Becton Dickinson (BDX) at about $72-$73, and then it hit $78! I don&#8217;t feel smart about that decision. However, when I bought Becton Dickinson, I set a sell P/E, and when it approached I quickly reviewed the stock&#8217;s fundamentals &#8211; they had not changed much, so I sold the stock.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">You cannot worry about marking the &#8220;top&#8221; in every sell. My objective is not to buy at the &#8220;bottom&#8221; and sell at the &#8220;top.&#8221; No, my objective is to buy a great company when it is cheap and to sell it when it is fairly valued! I suggest you do the same.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA, is a portfolio manager with Investment Management Associates Inc. and an adjunct professor at the University of Colorado. His blog is ContrarianEdge.com</p>
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