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Michael Dell, Who’s Your Daddy?

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis by

Michael Dell should ask himself a simple question: “Who is my daddy?” He says his current daddy — Wall Street’s army of sell-side analysts and impatient investors with their insatiable thirst for short-term results — makes it impossible for him to transform Dell from a PC maker into a technology services company. He doesn’t want…

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Buffett Buying Heinz – Not As Expensive as Appears

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Berkshire Hathaway buying Heinz is unlike any deal Buffett has ever done.  In his past deals he was always a passive owner – he let existing management continue to run the company.  In this case 3G, a private equity firm that has done terrific turnarounds in the past, will be the new management.  They are…

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How Much Would You Pay for the Apple Ecosystem?

in Stock Analysis by

Earlier this week I wrote about the psychological challenges that Apple shareholders face. I also discussed the evolution of Apple’s “i” gadgets — the iPod, iPhone and iPad — and how they have created an ecosystem unlike those of other technology companies. Apple’s ecosystem is an important and durable competitive advantage; it creates a tangible switching…

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Understanding Apple Requires an Analysis of Fundamentals and Psychology

in Stock Analysis by

So many articles have been written recently about Apple — defending it or explaining why this glorious fruit will turn into a shriveling pumpkin by midnight (with Samsung’s help) — that I really haven’t felt the need to contribute to the unending debate. But then Apple’s stock crashed to $450 last month, and we bought a…

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Looking for “Herbal” in Herbalife

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Months before the recent Sturm und Drang surrounding nutritional-supplement maker Herbalife, my firm took a long, hard look at the company. On the surface it was a value investor’s dream: great balance sheet, high return on capital, high revenue and earnings growth, and attractive valuation. Of course, there was one problem: The validity of its multilevel marketing…

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Bargain Hunting at J.C. Penney

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis by

ARMED WITH fancy, Nobel Prize–winning equations and Greek terminology such as beta, portable alpha, neutered theta and sigma-squared delta (okay, I made up the last two), an army of consultants evaluates mutual fund and hedge fund manager performance on a monthly and quarterly basis, ignoring the fact that in the short run stock movements are…

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VALUEx Vail 2012 – Amazon’s Valuation

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In this series of several articles I’ll discuss my thoughts from the VALUEx Vail conference.  The idea for this conference came to me when I attended VALUEx Zurich, organized by Guy Spier and John Mihaljevic  in February 2011.  The thought of spending three days learning and sharing ideas with smart, like-minded value investors felt instantly…

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Facebook IPO Was a Success and Wall Street Got What it Deserved

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Being politically correct has never been my strongest quality; therefore I’ll say this: I don’t feel sorry for Facebook’s new shareholders. Despite NASDAQ technical glitches and analysts sharing changes in estimates for the near quarter only with big clients, the Facebook initial public offering (IPO) was a success. Yes, a success. See, the IPO market…

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Why Facebook’s IPO Valuation is Insane

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis by

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/blogarticle/3032107/Why-Facebooks-IPO-Valuation-is-Insane.html I was recently on CNBC discussing the Facebook valuation, which I believe is priced for out-of-this-world perfection. The easiest way to assess the insanity of Facebook’s valuation is by comparing it to Google’s. Facebook is set to go public at a sweet valuation of $100 billion, and it has estimated revenue for 2012 of…

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