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Stock Analysis - page 3

No Kodak Moment for Hewlett-Packard

in Stock Analysis

Investment mistakes usually fall into one of three categories: analysis, behavior or bad luck. In October 2011, after the shares of Hewlett-Packard Co. had been halved from about $48 earlier that year, I made a case for the stock. That was a mistake. There was no bad luck. I made several errors in my analysis. In this column I want…

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How Much Would You Pay for the Apple Ecosystem?

in Stock Analysis

Earlier this week I wrote about the psychological challenges that Apple shareholders face. I also discussed the evolution of Apple’s “i” gadgets — the iPod, iPhone and iPad — and how they have created an ecosystem unlike those of other technology companies. Apple’s ecosystem is an important and durable competitive advantage; it creates a tangible switching…

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Looking for “Herbal” in Herbalife

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

Months before the recent Sturm und Drang surrounding nutritional-supplement maker Herbalife, my firm took a long, hard look at the company. On the surface it was a value investor’s dream: great balance sheet, high return on capital, high revenue and earnings growth, and attractive valuation. Of course, there was one problem: The validity of its multilevel marketing…

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Finding Value in HMOs

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

The part I hate about writing is the first paragraph — the introduction. You have to say something pithy that grabs readers’ attention and sets the tone. Sometimes the intro comes naturally; most of the time it doesn’t. I wanted to write an article about health maintenance organizations, but after staring at the computer screen…

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VALUEx Vail 2012 – Amazon’s Valuation

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis/VALUEx Vail

In this series of several articles I’ll discuss my thoughts from the VALUEx Vail conference.  The idea for this conference came to me when I attended VALUEx Zurich, organized by Guy Spier and John Mihaljevic  in February 2011.  The thought of spending three days learning and sharing ideas with smart, like-minded value investors felt instantly…

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How to Fix Best Buy

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

Best Buy Co. shareholders are lucky that CEO Brian Dunn pulled a “Mark Hurd” and resigned as a result of allegations of an inappropriate relationship with a staffer. Dunn was not the right person to lead Best Buy into battle against online-only competitors that use the company’s spacious stores as showrooms for their products. Dunn…

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Facebook IPO Was a Success and Wall Street Got What it Deserved

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

Being politically correct has never been my strongest quality; therefore I’ll say this: I don’t feel sorry for Facebook’s new shareholders. Despite NASDAQ technical glitches and analysts sharing changes in estimates for the near quarter only with big clients, the Facebook initial public offering (IPO) was a success. Yes, a success. See, the IPO market…

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