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Becton Dickinson Finds ‘Sweet Spot’ Pharmas Have Missed

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November 5, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Predictability of revenue and earnings along with a likely dividend increase make BDX an appealing investment. It is hard not to be impressed with Becton, Dickinson (BDX) and its management. The company is producing consistent organic growth in both the top line and bottom line through innovation. It…

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Sara Lee Struggling to Pass on Higher Commodity Prices

in Stock Analysis

October 27, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Premium consumer brands no longer guarantee pricing power. Sara Lee (SLE) reported earnings at the higher end of estimates, producing 44 cents per share. However, these results include 15 cents received from the sale of its European cut-tobacco business. Sales grew 4% during the quarter, with net income…

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First Horizon on the Rise

in Stock Analysis

October 26, 2004 – TheStreet.com: StreetInsight FHN is taking market share in the mortgage business from defunct small players. Management is not managing the business for the short-term; its building a strong, viable franchise for the long term. The company was able to maintain flat earnings year-over-year despite huge exposure to the refi market. I…

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The Perfect Storm Is About To Hit Automotive Stocks

in Stock Analysis

October 6, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Rising interest rates, incentives, and declining profit margins are swirling around the automakers. The perfect storm is brewing on the horizon for the automotive industry and, unfortunately, the industry will be unable to dodge it. It will have dire consequences on this already over-leveraged, mismanaged and over-unionized industry.…

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Searching for Truth in Stock Options, I Found Veritas

in Stock Analysis

September 30, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Veritas looked like a bargain, but when I adjust my cash-flow model for stock option expense, it’s not cheap at all. If the expense was disclosed on the income statement, mgt. wouldn’t give out stock options like turkeys on Thanksgiving. My frustration with stock options has officially reached…

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Pharmaceutical Industry Went Legit, Distributors Went Down

in Stock Analysis

September 28, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Channel stuffing by pharmaceutical companies had handicapped the drug distribution industry. Drug distributors are pushing distribution costs back to pharmaceutical companies in a “fee-for-service” arrangement. A wait-and-see approach is best when investing in drug distributors, the situation may get worse before it gets better. The drug distribution industry…

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Ending Channel Stuffing Will Pressure Drug Companies’ Multiples

in Stock Analysis

September 23, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight The premium valuation multiple that the healthcare industry commanded in the past is in the past. Last week I was teaching a Practical Equity Analysis class and describing the concept of channel stuffing to my students. As an example, I brought up the large pharmaceutical and drug distributors…

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Merck – Positioning for a Sum-of-All-Fears Scenario

in Stock Analysis

September 9, 2005 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight September 17, 2005 – Realmoney.com Recent clinical studies on Vioxx and Zocor do not bode well for the stock. A negative FDA ruling and/or tight restrictions from insurance companies would hurt sales dramatically. A 30% decline in sales could result in 45-65% lower earnings, according to my firm’s…

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Becton, Dickinson Finds ‘Sweet Spot’ Pharmas Have Missed

in Stock Analysis

September 5, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Predictability of revenue and earnings along with a likely dividend increase make BDX an appealing investment. It is hard not to be impressed with Becton, Dickinson (BDX) and its management. The company is producing consistent organic growth in both the top line and bottom line through innovation. It…

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A Contrarian View on Oil Prices

in Stock Analysis

August 28, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Consensus oil price forecasts are too aggressive, and are not sustainable in the long run. The usual bullish argument sounds among the lines: Production capacity is maxed out (Saudis are pumping all the oil they can, Russia is a mess), demand in China, India, and South Korea is…

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The Place of No Returns

in Stock Analysis

July 7, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight For the next decade the sign on the door of index funds should read: “A place of low fees and no returns.” The future is in the hands of the active managers, not the indices. Broad stock market returns will be flat, at best, for some time. We…

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BJ’s Wholesale

in Stock Analysis

June 30, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight In this market environment “cash” is one of my favorite stocks. Though it doesn’t offer good growth potential it meets two of my other criteria: it pays a dividend (low, but it is better than nothing) and it has no risk of P/E contraction. We constantly search for…

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Dollar General: Is Not So General

in Stock Analysis

June 10, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight DG should be accumulated on any consumer weakness numbers. There is still growth ahead for this retailer. Operational performance is improving, margins will likely expand. The near future will likely to present multiple buying opportunities in Dollar General that are to be taken advantage of. DG will likely…

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Barron’s is Wrong on Colgate

in Stock Analysis

April 28, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight The most recent Barron’s contains a favorable article about Colgate by senior editor Jacqueline Doherty. The gist of the article is that Colgate is cheap, its recent quarter sub-par earnings growth just a short-term setback, and it should return to its long-term growth target of 11% next year.…

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