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Personal Musings, November 2018 Edition

I’ve never been to a TED Talk, though I’ve watched plenty of them. This week I am going to attend the TEDx Talks in Hickory, NC, organized by my friend Chris Pavese. I am extra-excited because my friend Roben Farzad will be one of the speakers. Roben and I met in an interesting way. My […]

Soul In The Game

Few people have had as great an impact on me as an investor as Nassim Taleb.  A good friend gave me his book Fooled by Randomness on my thirtieth birthday in 2003.  In that book Nassim eloquently analyzed something I had struggled with for a long time: the role randomness plays in life and the stock market. […]

How A Stock Market Turns Investors Into Gamblers – Audio Edition

Today I am going to share with you an article I wrote after the January 2018 stock market volatility. It’s as relevant today as it was then. However, this time around you don’t have to strain your eyes; you can use your ears. Optimal Living Daily has turned my article into a podcast. Turn off […]

How To Invest In A Stock Market That’s Due For A Hard Landing

I simply don’t trust the fundamentals of the global economy right now. The system is built on quicksand. Debt is growing globally and governments are running huge deficits while interest rates are still incredibly low. Looking at almost any metric, stock markets have been more expensive once in the last 100 years — just before the dot-com […]

Investors Have Misdiagnosed Amazon’s Push Into The Pharmacy Business

Companies everywhere, in every business, are paranoid about Amazon.com. This sort of paranoia is healthy for the long-term well-being of our investment portfolio, as it is creating interesting buying opportunities. A case in point: My firm spent a lot of time thinking about pharmacies when we were analyzing investments in McKesson and other drug distributors. […]

Questions I’d be Asking If I Owned Tesla Stock

Here’s a big question I’d be asking if I owned Tesla stock: What happened to 345,000 reservations? When Tesla’s Model 3 was released, it was supposed to be a $35,000 car. Four hundred thousand people, including yours truly, put down a $1,000 deposit to reserve their spots in line so they could get their hands on […]

Why My Firm Sold Short-Term Bond ETFs and Bought U.S. Treasury Bills

Recently my firm replaced all of our short-term bond exchange-traded funds with U.S. Treasury bills. The core motive for this decision was not to pick up a few points of extra yield, though that’s a nice bonus. We sold these ETFs because we were concerned about the low-probability but still possible risk mismatch in liquidity […]

London Value Conference Presentation (Q&A)

I had the pleasure of speaking at the London Value Conference, which was a terrific, first-rate event. I did not make a formal presentation; instead I did Q&A with my friend, the wonderful David Shapiro.   On the morning of the conference (which happened to be midnight in Denver), I found I had a hard time […]

Socially Irresponsible Investing

The article I am about to share with you has been in the works for three years. I started and failed at finishing it half a dozen times. I want to warn you, this is an apolitical article. I go out of my way not to take positions on any issue – not because I […]

Why I Canceled My Model 3 Order

I put a $1,000 deposit on a Tesla Model 3 the day it was announced. At the time I thought of the Model 3 as a smaller, cheaper version of the Model S. So a few days ago I stopped by a Tesla store to check out the Model 3. I was at the store […]