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Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 2)

in Stock Analysis

Path dependency is a very important concept. It’s something we constantly think about, and thus, we’ll take a small detour to explore it. In addition to our traditional quality analysis, which falls into three buckets (business, balance sheet, and management), we also look at companies through the slightly different lens of fragility. We owe our…

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Antifragility, Path Dependency, and Value Investing (Part 1)

in Stock Analysis

Today I am going to do something we rarely do. I will share a large excerpt from IMA’s last quarterly letter to clients. Our quarterly letters are somewhat unconventional in that they provide an in-depth look at our investment process and explain in great detail every major decision that went into each client’s portfolio during the quarter. We are somewhat embarrassed…

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Uninvestable Tesla

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

Tesla is an uninvestable stock for me, not just because of its high valuation but also because it fails our fairly basic quality test, which I shamelessly borrowed from Warren Buffett: Would I still buy this stock if right after the purchase the stock market were to close for ten years? If you are a big Tesla…

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The double trap for Tesla investors predicting the future

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

The iPhone was an enormous gamble, as its pushed the limits of then-available technology – the microprocessor, screen, battery, and wireless capability were beyond what seemed possible in 2007. Undoubtably, if Apple hadn’t created the iPhone, someone else would have created a similar device later. But when? There is no way to know, but the…

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New iPhones are not enough to keep Apple’s stock going, it needs a new category

in FP: Latest/Stock Analysis

It is hard to find a bigger Apple stock cheerleader than me. I’ve been writing Apple stock love poems for years. For a long time, it was easy to love the shares because they were unloved by others and it was cheap. Until recently, when Apple stock was still trading in the low $100s and at single-digit multiples,…

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SoftBank’s big plan for a smarter internet is brilliant

in FP: Latest/FP: Stock Analysis/Stock Analysis

Masayoshi Son doesn’t do anything small nor does he do things in a simple way. A few months ago SoftBank Group announced that it would be raising $100 billion to invest in Son’s vision of the singularity. (That is more than the capital of the entire venture capital industry.) Singularity is the point when computer intelligence…

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Why Amazon Will Not Kill This Business

in FP: Latest/FP: Stock Analysis/Stock Analysis

Tesco is a great example of how one should be very careful judging a company’s fundamental performance by looking solely at the performance of its stock. The company reported another great quarter with a lot of “increases”: total sales increased 4.3%; same stores increased 0.9%; store traffic increased (it has been increasing for many quarters…

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It’s not just Amazon’s fault

in FP: Featured/FP: Latest/FP: Stock Analysis/Stock Analysis

Retail stocks have been annihilated recently, despite the economy eking out growth. The fundamentals of the retail business look horrible: Sales are stagnating and profitability is getting worse with every passing quarter. Jeff Bezos and Amazon get most of the credit, but this credit is misplaced. Today, online sales represent only 8.5 percent of total…

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