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The Market Right Now Doesn’t Care How Fantastic Your Stocks Are

The Roman philosopher Seneca wasn’t talking about the stock market when he wrote that “Time discovers truth,” but he could have been. In the long run a stock price will reflect a company’s (true) intrinsic value. In the short run the pricing is basically random. Here are two real-life examples. Let’s say you had the […]

Why We Sold Apple Stock

December 2018 Our firm bought Apple shares for clients’ portfolios in 2013, and we are used to being a contrarian voice when it comes to the stock (read here and here) — we loved it when it was hated. Now we are contrarian again — this time going against the company’s faithful. Here are key […]

Stansberry Investor Hour Interview

I was interviewed by my friend Dan Ferris on the Stansberry Investor Hour show. My segment of the interview starts at the 22:22 mark (click here to listen). If you’d like to dig deeper into some of the concepts I discussed, you can read the following articles: What quality means to us. Why we sold […]

The Average Stock Is Overvalued Somewhere Between Tremendously And Enormously

My business is to constantly look for new stocks by running stock screens, endlessly reading (blogs, research, magazines, newspapers), looking at the holdings of respected investors, talking to a large network of investment professionals, attending conferences, scouring through ideas published on value investor networks, and finally, scouring a large (and growing) watch list of companies […]

Soul In The Game

Few people have had as great an impact on me as an investor as Nassim Taleb.  A good friend gave me his book Fooled by Randomness on my thirtieth birthday in 2003.  In that book Nassim eloquently analyzed something I had struggled with for a long time: the role randomness plays in life and the stock market. […]

How A Stock Market Turns Investors Into Gamblers – Audio Edition

Today I am going to share with you an article I wrote after the January 2018 stock market volatility. It’s as relevant today as it was then. However, this time around you don’t have to strain your eyes; you can use your ears. Optimal Living Daily has turned my article into a podcast. Turn off […]

How To Invest In A Stock Market That’s Due For A Hard Landing

I simply don’t trust the fundamentals of the global economy right now. The system is built on quicksand. Debt is growing globally and governments are running huge deficits while interest rates are still incredibly low. Looking at almost any metric, stock markets have been more expensive once in the last 100 years — just before the dot-com […]

Investors Have Misdiagnosed Amazon’s Push Into The Pharmacy Business

Companies everywhere, in every business, are paranoid about Amazon.com. This sort of paranoia is healthy for the long-term well-being of our investment portfolio, as it is creating interesting buying opportunities. A case in point: My firm spent a lot of time thinking about pharmacies when we were analyzing investments in McKesson and other drug distributors. […]

Questions I’d be Asking If I Owned Tesla Stock

Here’s a big question I’d be asking if I owned Tesla stock: What happened to 345,000 reservations? When Tesla’s Model 3 was released, it was supposed to be a $35,000 car. Four hundred thousand people, including yours truly, put down a $1,000 deposit to reserve their spots in line so they could get their hands on […]

Why My Firm Sold Short-Term Bond ETFs and Bought U.S. Treasury Bills

Recently my firm replaced all of our short-term bond exchange-traded funds with U.S. Treasury bills. The core motive for this decision was not to pick up a few points of extra yield, though that’s a nice bonus. We sold these ETFs because we were concerned about the low-probability but still possible risk mismatch in liquidity […]