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The Process - page 3

We Are Not AAA

in FP: Latest/Macro/The Process

I have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the downgrade? So I decided to put my thoughts on paper.  I break up the consequences into three categories: fundamental (the impact on the economy), emotional (the short-term impact on the market), and political (will it…

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U.S. Must “Man Up and Take the Pain” or We’ll Become Japan

in 5 Minutes of Fame/FP: Latest/Japan/The Process

After it’s property bubble burst, Japan embarked on a stimulus program Katsenelson describes simply as: “Lower taxes and borrow money to finance it,” which pretty much sounds like U.S. fiscal policy during the Bush years. Japan’s central bank has also employed quantitative easing repeatedly since the early 2000s; if their experience is any indication, Ben…

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The China Bubble’s Coming — But Not the One You Think

in China/The Process

Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there’s a bubble — and if so, when it’s going to burst. My take? Who cares! What happens to the broader Chinese economy is what we should really be watching. It will have a far-reaching impact on the rest of the world — much more far-reaching than a decline in stocks.

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The pain of mean reversion

in The Process

DENVER (MarketWatch) — The stock market has dropped. Corporate profits have collapsed. And profit margins have reverted toward the mean. What is next? Before I dive into the discussion, let me explain the chart below, which I named appropriately, “The pain of mean reversion.” I looked at reported earnings for S&P 500 and compared them…

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The Process

in The Process

I wrote this article almost two years ago, it is by far the most important article I ever wrote.  I strongly encourage you to read it today.  Successful investing is about following a successful, time-proven process in good and bad times (especially bad times).  Of course, the problem with the process – though it may work…

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