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Don’t Drink Market’s Kool Aid

Here is a joke that I heard from Warren Buffet years back. A very successful oilman dies. He faces Saint Peter, who says, “You’ve been a good man and normally I’d send you to heaven, but heaven is full. We only have a place in hell.” The oilman says, “Any chance I could talk to […]

Sideways Markets Presentation

Here are slides of my updated/revised presentation on sideways markets.  Over the last three months I’ve given talks on sideways markets three times, to CFA Societies in South Florida, New Zealand, and Atlanta.  It is very hard to be excited about the US stock market.  I read that Rich Bernstein, former chief investment strategist at […]

Playing a Game of Economic Survivor

I don’t do writing assignments. I don’t like deadlines. I am not a writer; I am an investor who thinks through writing. So when Institutional Investor asked me to write on the future of investing, my instinct was to politely decline. But the topic did seem intriguing. So I decided to give it a try.

For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do

Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for the PIIGS to start dropping like flies, taking the rest of the euro zone and the global economy with them. Unlikely! European monetary union was a great experiment that made a lot of sense on […]

Fed is Measuring U.S. Economic Health by the Wrong Number

Mark Twain said, “To a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”  To a Fed – an institution employing an army of economists and academics – everything looks like an economic problem that needs to be quantitatively eased.  But the Fed is killing the economy. Undermines confidence  Sir Alan Greenspan, who, after he […]

We Are Not AAA

I have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the downgrade? So I decided to put my thoughts on paper.  I break up the consequences into three categories: fundamental (the impact on the economy), emotional (the short-term impact on the market), and political (will it […]

VALUEx Vail 2011 – Thoughts from the conference

VALUEx Vail 2011 is over.  I already miss these three days.  I got the idea to put together VALUEx Vail after I attended VALUEx in Klosters (a little ski resort town in Switzerland, located on the other – the “value” – side of the mountain from Davos) in February this year.  Since I live only […]

Creighton Value Investing Panel

While in Omaha attending the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting I had the pleasure of participating on a Value Investing Panel at Creighton University.  Ben Claremon from Inoculated Investor blog took very good notes from the event, you can find them in the PDF below. Creighton Value Investing Panel

Margin Shrinkage – It Can Happen to You

Profit margins are a tick away from all-time highs and are creating the impression of cheap equity valuations.   But that impression is a mirage, because today’s generous margins are destined to shrink. I first wrote about this in January 2008, and here is an update to that article.  All I had to do was to […]