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Russia

Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen

in Macro/Russia by

My father, Naum Katsenelson, painted this watercolor, “Dolls Become Humans,” two years after we came to the United States in 1993. This is the only “thematic” picture my father ever painted. If you look at the picture carefully you’ll see the silhouette of Lenin in the clouds (representing the past). On the far left there…

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Will Russia Go to War Over Ukraine? Don’t Bet on It

in Macro/Russia by
Crimea_republic_map

It is hard for me to see a full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine. There are so few cultural differences between these two countries. Ukraine has its own language, but almost everyone (outside of small villages) speaks flawless Russian. If there is a war between these two countries, it will be a civil war. Ukraine…

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Video from China/Japan Presentation and DC Trip

in China/FP: Latest/Japan/Russia by
blackbird

I gave a presentation on China/Japan at the “Rethinking Seminar” at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.  My presentation was videotaped; video (both streaming and download), audio, and even cliff notes may be found here (by the way, make sure to take a look at other presentations on their website).  Also, I updated my slides…

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Fly, Don’t Buy Airlines or Why Big Banks Make Dumb Loans

in Russia/The Process by
russia 2

If I’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that people don’t learn. Recently, I talked to my cousin who is an executive with a Russian airline company. In our discussion he mentioned that his company just received semi-unsecured loans (all planes are leased so they are not used as a collateral) from western banks at 10%…

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Russia: We Don’t Need the West Anymore

in In Defense of Capitalism/Russia by

Royal Dutch Shell‘s $7.5 billion sale to Gazprom may have been coerced by the Russian government. Vitaliy Katsenelson looks at the Sakhalin-2 sale and examines the long-term implications if Russia disregards Western investment. [I had a different title in mind for that article Russia: Screw the West, We Don’t Need Them Anymore, but my editor…

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Russian Thievery

in Russia by

The Russian government’s threat to suspend licenses for two giga-billion projects by TNK-BP, in part owned by BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A), is not uncharacteristic of Russia and its very short term thinking. The Russian government argues that it is based on environmental concerns. Nothing, I repeat nothing, in Russia gets done based on environmental concerns. The government simply wants to muscle in on a larger stake in the projects.

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