Lecture: China & Global Economy
On January 18, 2011 I had a great pleasure to give a lecture on China and its impact on global economy at Johns Hopkings University Applied Physics Lab.
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Omaha & Bubbles
I have to confess, I am tired of writing “structured” articles, the ones where I have to limit my thoughts to 800 words. So with this email I am taking a break. This is an unstructured stream of thought, in no particular sequence. Deadline to register for VALUEx Vail is May 1st. I am [...]
Krugman’s Missed Call; Europe/China/Japan; Sideways Markets; Profit Margins; Microsoft
I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Adviser Perspectives. I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and [...]
Video from China/Japan Presentation and DC Trip
I gave a presentation on China/Japan at the “Rethinking Seminar” at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab. My presentation was videotaped; video (both streaming and download), audio, and even cliff notes may be found here (by the way, make sure to take a look at other presentations on their website). Also, I updated my slides [...]
China – The Mother of All Gray Swans / Japan – Past The Point of No Return
I updated my presentation on China and Japan. – Enjoy China Japan Presentation – By Vitaliy Katsenelson – ContrarianEdge(function() { var scribd = document.createElement(“script”); scribd.type = “text/javascript”; scribd.async = true; scribd.src = “http://www.scribd.com/javascripts/embed_code/inject.js”; var s = document.getElementsByTagName(“script”)[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(scribd, s); })();
Set the Bar High
The Ups and Downs of Flying I am a very nervous flyer. Whenever there is a little bit of turbulence, I look out the window, see shaking wings, and start to wonder whether they’ll keep holding the plane up. Then my rational self kicks in, and I tell myself that statistically it is safer flying [...]
U.S. Must “Man Up and Take the Pain” or We’ll Become Japan
After it’s property bubble burst, Japan embarked on a stimulus program Katsenelson describes simply as: “Lower taxes and borrow money to finance it,” which pretty much sounds like U.S. fiscal policy during the Bush years. Japan’s central bank has also employed quantitative easing repeatedly since the early 2000s; if their experience is any indication, Ben [...]
Poststeroid Economics
Here is my latest article in the October issue of Institutional Investor Poststeroid Economics By Vitaliy N. Katsenelson During the ’80s and ’90s, ignorance was bliss. The global economy was growing nicely, and analyzing it (or even paying attention to market cycles) seemed like a waste of time, as the economy came in only three [...]
Japan: Land of the Rising Debt
Two decades of stimulative, low-interest-rate fiscal policy have made Japan the most indebted nation in the developed world
Musings on Kids and Asia
I have not written articles in a few months, except for the one I wrote for the July issue of Institutional Investor magazine, on Japan (I’ll post a link once the magazine comes out).. I am sure Freud, after spending a few minutes in my subconscious, would provide some disturbing explanations. But as Freud said, [...]
Don’t call me Dr. Doom, call me Mr. Realist
I had an interesting conversation last week with a potential investor. I described my thoughts on the US economy, explaining that in our (my firm’s) view the current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus. (I’ve written about it in this [...]
Japan – Past the Point of No Return
Japan – Past the Point of No Return – By Vitaliy Katsenelson Sing up to receive articles by email (no spam) E-mail Address: Email Marketing powered by StreamSend
Will Japan drive our interest rates higher?
In investing, it’s important to think unconventionally and creatively while at the same time considering risks – no matter how remote or unmanageable they are. I keep thinking: What would drive our interest rates up in the US? China is the obvious culprit as it’s the largest holder of our fine Treasury obligations. If China’s [...]
Signs of Global Growth Slowdown?
This weekend’s papers provided new signs of global economic slowdown. The first came from Japan. For the first time in 26 years – a long time – Japan became a net importer (imports exceeded exports). FT article sums it up: The contraction was led by plunging sales of Japanese cars and trucks in a weak [...]