Category archive


Jos. A. Bank and the Folly of Quantitative Easing

in FP: Latest/Macro

A few years back I wrote an article comparing buy-one-suit-get-three-free sales by Jos. A. Bank to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program. Then Jos. A. Bank’s management did something absolutely brilliant: In March 2014 it sold the company for $1.8 billion to Men’s Wearhouse, its closest competitor (and twice its outfit’s size). Earlier this month…

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Shadow Over Asia

in China/Macro

Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics I really would not change anything.

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Nelson Mandela

in Else/FP: Latest/Macro

Nelson Mandela’s passing last week made me want to share some thoughts about him. I visited South Africa twice over the last five years. I fell in love with that country, especially with Cape Town, which looks very similar to Santa Barbara – ocean, vineyards, and mountains (here are pictures from this trip). I wrote about…

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The China Syndrome

in China/FP: Latest/Macro

MOST PEOPLE are convinced by now that there is a fixed-asset bubble in China that is on the verge of bursting. The question is, what is next? The answer will depend on how much debt is in the system. The more debt infesting the system, the further and steeper asset price declines will be and the…

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Seek out people who disagree with you; The budget deficit is a stimulus; China = post-bubble Japan?

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/The Process

I am back from Buffett’s Omaha.  Every year I come back feeling supercharged for the year ahead.  This year was no different.  From morning till night I had the pleasure of sharing and debating ideas with investors from all over the world.  Though I did not plan it this way, the first day I had…

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Interview with Advisor Perspectives

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/Japan/Macro/Stock Analysis

I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives.  I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s  latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and…

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We Are Not AAA

in FP: Latest/Macro/The Process

I have received many emails and a few calls from friends, asking one question: What are the consequences of the downgrade? So I decided to put my thoughts on paper.  I break up the consequences into three categories: fundamental (the impact on the economy), emotional (the short-term impact on the market), and political (will it…

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