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Macro

Shadow Over Asia

in China/FP: Featured/Macro by
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Five years ago, almost to the day, I was interviewed by David Galland, who worked at Casey Research at the time. This interview covered three topics: the Chinese overcapacity bubble, the Japanese debt bubble, and my sideways markets thesis. Five years is a long time, but with the exception of updating some statistics I really would not change anything.

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Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen

in Macro/Russia by

My father, Naum Katsenelson, painted this watercolor, “Dolls Become Humans,” two years after we came to the United States in 1993. This is the only “thematic” picture my father ever painted. If you look at the picture carefully you’ll see the silhouette of Lenin in the clouds (representing the past). On the far left there…

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The True Value of Macro Forecasting for Value Investors

in Macro/The Process by
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While in Omaha for the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting a couple of weeks ago, I participated in an investment panel hosted by a local chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. I had the privilege of sharing the stage with such industry giants as Tom Russo, a partner of Gardner Russo & Gardner (famous for knowing…

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Will Russia Go to War Over Ukraine? Don’t Bet on It

in Macro/Russia by
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It is hard for me to see a full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine. There are so few cultural differences between these two countries. Ukraine has its own language, but almost everyone (outside of small villages) speaks flawless Russian. If there is a war between these two countries, it will be a civil war. Ukraine…

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Additional Thoughts on The Fed Model and Profit Margins

in FP: Latest/Macro by
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Last week I’ve shared with you my  Institutional Investor article on some important but quite boring topics that include the Fed Model, the price-to-earnings ratio, and profit margins. I imagine for most civilians (people who don’t do investing for a living) reading about these topics is as exciting as watching a live debate between two…

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The Not-So-Big Picture on Financial Models

in FP: Latest/Macro by
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Rarely do I disagree with fellow investor and financial blogger Barry Ritholtz, but the time has finally come. Last week Barry wrote a column for Bloomberg View called “Why ‘Peak-Earnings Models’ Are Nonsense.” Though I don’t agree with everything I read, and I hardly ever expend the energy to write a long response, this time…

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Seek out people who disagree with you; The budget deficit is a stimulus; China = post-bubble Japan?

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/The Process by
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I am back from Buffett’s Omaha.  Every year I come back feeling supercharged for the year ahead.  This year was no different.  From morning till night I had the pleasure of sharing and debating ideas with investors from all over the world.  Though I did not plan it this way, the first day I had…

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Interview with Advisor Perspectives

in 5 Minutes of Fame/China/FP: Latest/Japan/Macro/Stock Analysis by
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 I wanted to share with you my interview with my friend Bob Huebscher who runs a terrific website Advisor Perspectives.  I am very excited about this interview because in a very unconstrained format we had a chance to discuss Paul Krugman’s  latest bearish article on China, the linkage between the European crisis and Chinese and…

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For Europe, Breaking Up Is a Hard Thing to Do

in Else/FP: Latest/Macro/The Process by
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Everyone is looking with horror at Europe, waiting for the European Economic and Monetary Union to break up and for the PIIGS to start dropping like flies, taking the rest of the euro zone and the global economy with them. Unlikely! European monetary union was a great experiment that made a lot of sense on…

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Video from China/Japan Presentation and DC Trip

in China/FP: Latest/Japan/Russia by
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I gave a presentation on China/Japan at the “Rethinking Seminar” at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab.  My presentation was videotaped; video (both streaming and download), audio, and even cliff notes may be found here (by the way, make sure to take a look at other presentations on their website).  Also, I updated my slides…

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