I love Barron’s. I really do. I read it from cover to cover, and I truly believe it is one of the few business publications that knows the difference between a good company and a good stock. Now that I’ve sugared it up, let me tell you this: its article on Medtronic is wrong!

Two decades of stimulative, low-interest-rate fiscal policy have made Japan the most indebted nation in the developed world

On BNN TV (Canadian version of CNBC) discussing sideways markets and my favorite stocks

I have not written articles in a few months, except for the one I wrote for the July issue of Institutional Investor magazine, on Japan (I’ll post a link once the magazine comes out)..  I am sure Freud, after spending a few minutes in my subconscious, would provide some disturbing explanations.  But as Freud said, [...]

Tuesday’s  headline from the WSJ reads: “Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)  to offer up to  $1.25 billion in 3-year convertible notes.”
The software company will use the sales proceeds to repay short-term debt. If it was any other company I’d ignore this headline as a daily noise as this kind of things happens all the time. But Microsoft has [...]

Here is my article on range-bound markets in NAPFA magazine:
Investing in Range-Bound Markets by Vitaliy N. Katsenelson (published in NAPFA Magazine)

China Roundtable with Robert Horrocks and Vitaliy Katsenelson

It’s time for the annual trip to Omaha.   For many, it’s a worshipful pilgrimage, as they hang on every word coming out of the Oracle’s mouth as the Gospel of Eternal Truth.  I am not much of a worshipper (in this article I explained why); I go there to learn, debate, meet like-minded investors [...]

I’ll cover a lot of random subjects, but let me start with an invitation.  I was invited to give a talk about China and Japan at my alma mater, the University of Colorado at Denver.  Here is the invite: 
We are pleased to invite you to an upcoming International Executive Roundtable on Thursday, April 15, 2010 [...]

Christian Science Monitor approached me to write an article on China after they saw my presentation – China the Mother of All Black Swans.  This article is a combination of this presentation and articles I’ve written in the past.  It was published in the March 16th paper. 
 China: the coming costs of a superbubble
China may seem to [...]

 I had an interesting conversation last week with a potential investor.  I described my thoughts on the US economy, explaining that in our (my firm’s) view the current strength of the US economy is significantly boosted by steroids graciously provided by the US government in the form of stimulus.  (I’ve written about it in this [...]

Japan – Past the Point of No Return – By Vitaliy Katsenelson

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I was interviewed on BusinessInsider about China. If you did not see it, this presentation covers a lot of points I discussed in this interview.
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I was invited to speak to the CFA Society of Bermuda.  My wife and I decided to make a mini kids-free vacation out of it.  We rented the kids out to the grandparents.  On the way to Bermuda we were to stop by NYC for a few days.  I had my days packed with meetings; my [...]

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Chinese economy – it has tremendous overcapacity in the commercial and residential real estate and industrial sectors as you see from this presentation:
China – The Mother of All Black Swans – By Vitaliy Katsenelson
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 If I were a prosecutor I’d be thanking Al Gore for inventing the internet and email (I don’t know if Mr. Vice President claimed the email invention, but without the internet there is no email).  Especially email, because now you can amass evidence of wrongdoing in a very searchable and easy-to-use format.  TheStreet.com has dug [...]

 I have exciting travels for the next couple of months: 
 I’ll be giving a talk about Active Value Investing to the Bermuda CFA Society on February 11th.  On the way to Bermuda my wife and I will spend three days (February 7-9th) in NYC.  Then, as a Valentine’s present to each other, we’ll spend four days [...]

 I am a Capitalist Pig, and proud of it, thus you would not expect me to support government interference and more strenuous regulation of financial institutions – after all, capitalism (free markets) and tight regulation don’t mix well.  Well, at the risk of been kicked out of the Capitalistic Pig Party, I am in support [...]

 The Chinese economy must be getting out of control, because the Chinese government is doing the unthinkable: It is desperately trying to put the brakes on the economy. When you pump a stimulus package that represents 14% of GDP through a fire hose into an economy, which was already on shaky bubble foundation, in a [...]

The stock market’s performance over the next decade will be very similar to the one since 2000: the WSJ appropriately named it “the lost decade.”  Stocks will go up and down (setting all-time highs and multiyear lows), stagnate, and trade in a tight range.  At the end of this wild ride, when the excitement subsides [...]

AS THE NEW YEAR OPENS, THE stock market is behaving as if the past 20 years were about to repeat themselves: Another recession will turn into a robust expansion. Stock prices already are discounting an earnings recovery to something only slightly below the level before the financial crisis. Risk-taking is in vogue again.
The global economy, [...]

 This paragraph, taken from a SocGen research report by Dylan Grice (one of the few sell-side folks worth reading, along with Albert Edwards, also at SocGen), sums up the dichotomy between how investors look at China and the rest of the world.
Trading on a lowly 0.5x book value, Lloyds (LYG 5.1 ↓2.49%) is clearly unloved, [...]

In the bull market that preceded the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing financial crisis, equity valuations reached some very frothy levels.
The correction that followed only lasted until March, since when, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 60 per cent, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 has gained a similar amount.
Vitaliy Katsenelson    , fund [...]

Virtually unlimited access to cheap money blurs lines between what makes economic sense and what doesn’t. If it can be financed it will be built. Dubai’s plan to diversify away from petrochemicals made sense. Maybe it is even destined to become the Las Vegas of the Middle East, the Mecca of business travel and luxury.
Dubai, [...]

It was announced Thursday that IMS Health was to be stolen from its shareholders for $4 billion or about $22 share; a private equity firm will buy them out. IMS Health should have free cash flows this year over $340 million (the actual number should be higher than $400 million, but is benefited by a [...]

In investing, it’s important to think unconventionally and creatively while at the same time considering risks – no matter how remote or unmanageable they are. I keep thinking: What would drive our interest rates up in the US?
China is the obvious culprit as it’s the largest holder of our fine Treasury obligations.  If China’s exports [...]

  I was in interviewed in September 21 issue of Barron’s (see page 42).

VITALIY N. KATSENELSON SPENT HIS YOUTH in Murmansk, a city in northwest Russia perhaps best known to Westerners as a setting for The Hunt for Red October.
The Russian navy was a popular career track there. But Katsenelson, now 36, emigrated to the U.S. [...]