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Vitaliy Katsenelson - page 27

Vitaliy Katsenelson has 537 articles published.

Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates in Denver, Colo. He is the author of Active Value Investing (Wiley) and The Little Book of Sideways Markets (Wiley). His books were translated into eight languages. Forbes Magazine called him "The new Benjamin Graham".

Ending Channel Stuffing Will Pressure Drug Companies’ Multiples

in Stock Analysis

September 23, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight The premium valuation multiple that the healthcare industry commanded in the past is in the past. Last week I was teaching a Practical Equity Analysis class and describing the concept of channel stuffing to my students. As an example, I brought up the large pharmaceutical and drug distributors…

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Merck – Positioning for a Sum-of-All-Fears Scenario

in Stock Analysis

September 9, 2005 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight September 17, 2005 – Realmoney.com Recent clinical studies on Vioxx and Zocor do not bode well for the stock. A negative FDA ruling and/or tight restrictions from insurance companies would hurt sales dramatically. A 30% decline in sales could result in 45-65% lower earnings, according to my firm’s…

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Becton, Dickinson Finds ‘Sweet Spot’ Pharmas Have Missed

in Stock Analysis

September 5, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Predictability of revenue and earnings along with a likely dividend increase make BDX an appealing investment. It is hard not to be impressed with Becton, Dickinson (BDX) and its management. The company is producing consistent organic growth in both the top line and bottom line through innovation. It…

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A Contrarian View on Oil Prices

in Stock Analysis

August 28, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight Consensus oil price forecasts are too aggressive, and are not sustainable in the long run. The usual bullish argument sounds among the lines: Production capacity is maxed out (Saudis are pumping all the oil they can, Russia is a mess), demand in China, India, and South Korea is…

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The Place of No Returns

in Stock Analysis

July 7, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight For the next decade the sign on the door of index funds should read: “A place of low fees and no returns.” The future is in the hands of the active managers, not the indices. Broad stock market returns will be flat, at best, for some time. We…

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BJ’s Wholesale

in Stock Analysis

June 30, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight In this market environment “cash” is one of my favorite stocks. Though it doesn’t offer good growth potential it meets two of my other criteria: it pays a dividend (low, but it is better than nothing) and it has no risk of P/E contraction. We constantly search for…

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Dollar General: Is Not So General

in Stock Analysis

June 10, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight DG should be accumulated on any consumer weakness numbers. There is still growth ahead for this retailer. Operational performance is improving, margins will likely expand. The near future will likely to present multiple buying opportunities in Dollar General that are to be taken advantage of. DG will likely…

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Barron’s is Wrong on Colgate

in Stock Analysis

April 28, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight The most recent Barron’s contains a favorable article about Colgate by senior editor Jacqueline Doherty. The gist of the article is that Colgate is cheap, its recent quarter sub-par earnings growth just a short-term setback, and it should return to its long-term growth target of 11% next year.…

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The Hidden Risk in Risk

in Stock Analysis

April 1, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight We look at risk differently than most investors do. Rather than considering risk to be volatility or beta, we distinguish between “observed” risk and “hidden” risk. Hidden risk is not much different from observed risk – except it has not yet surfaced. Yogi Berra put it very eloquently:…

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Attitude is Everything

in Stock Analysis

March 4, 2004 – TheStreet.com: Street Insight   Paraphrasing Yogi Berra, investment is 90% mental — the other half is skill. The right emotional state of mind is critical since investing is not an exact science. An ability to make rational decisions under uncertainty with incomplete information is what investing is all about.   Our…

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Jos. A. Bank: You Betcha!

in Stock Analysis

Jos. A. Bank (Nasdaq: JOSB) has reported its second-quarter numbers, and they aren’t good — they’re great!

To start with, sales were up 20.8%, and gross and operating margins improved, mainly driven by maturation of the company’s fairly new store base. But the Jos. A. Bank story is not about growth — it always had plenty of that. It is about inventories, and they were the bright, shining star of this quarter. Specifically, inventories increased only 11.7% over the second quarter last year. So why is that great news?

To answer that question, it’s necessary to understand the issues surrounding Jos. A. Bank. First, it has double the inventory days (a measure of how long it takes to convert inventory into sales) of its closest competitor, Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: MW), and second, it had a terrible first quarter due to too much seasonal inventory. I have written two long articles on the first issue, so let me address the second issue here.

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Russian Oil Production

in Stock Analysis

By Vitaliy Katsenelson Paint me a skeptic or perhaps it’s just from being born in Russia, but I think Russian oil production is very likely to decline in the future. Why? Simple, over last couple of years Russian Government has de-privatized a big chunk of oil companies.  As we know government is not as effective…

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