Comments on: The Simple Math of “Staggering” Chinese Growth http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/07/28/the-simple-math-of-staggering-chinese-growth/ Vitaliy Katsenelson blog on the economy, stock market, and stocks. Applying Active Value Investing approach. Fri, 18 May 2012 08:51:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Shinmeister http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/07/28/the-simple-math-of-staggering-chinese-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-190513 Shinmeister Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:30:22 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=1169#comment-190513 Hi Vitaliy, I am not sure we are comparing apples to apples here I believe the June export decline rate is as compared to last year June, whereas the GDP growth rate is for the quarter and compared to earlier quarter i.e. Q1 2009, also more importantly the GDP growth rates are annualized which means the GDP grew by 8/4 (since there are 4 quarters)i.e. 2% actual growth. I was not able to dig up the # for export decline in the Q2 quarter compared to Q1 but if you have that info please share, maybe I am completely wrong! Thanks Hi Vitaliy, I am not sure we are comparing apples to apples here
I believe the June export decline rate is as compared to last year June, whereas the GDP growth rate is for the quarter and compared to earlier quarter i.e. Q1 2009, also more importantly the GDP growth rates are annualized which means the GDP grew by 8/4 (since there are 4 quarters)i.e. 2% actual growth.
I was not able to dig up the # for export decline in the Q2 quarter compared to Q1 but if you have that info please share, maybe I am completely wrong!
Thanks

]]> By: kkc15 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/07/28/the-simple-math-of-staggering-chinese-growth/comment-page-1/#comment-190512 kkc15 Thu, 30 Jul 2009 01:43:55 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=1169#comment-190512 What about import? China's import is also growing at staggering pace as well. Net export contributes to 10% of China's GDP only. Simple math: export -20%; import -10% implies net import -10% 0.1 (-10%) + 0.9 (x) = 8% x is only 10% What about import? China’s import is also growing at staggering pace as well. Net export contributes to 10% of China’s GDP only.
Simple math: export -20%; import -10% implies net import -10%
0.1 (-10%) + 0.9 (x) = 8%
x is only 10%

]]>