I updated my Active Value Investing presentation and added new slides. This file opens Power Point – better for viewing on the screen, this file opens PDF – better for printing. Slide 17 – new slide on Japanese secular bear market Slide 18,19,20,21 – updated valuation data for recent stock market rise, added a new [...]
A friend asked: What do you make of this rally? Is this May 2003 [beginning of four year cyclical bull market], or May 2008? [beginning of dramatic stock market declines] The May 2003 rally turned into a cyclical bull because the economy started to recover, but more importantly earnings growth started to outpace GDP growth [...]
Be careful about investing your hard-earned dollars in the latest Chinese five-year economic miracle. One should not confuse China’s latest economic growth — retail sales up 14.8 percent, industrial production up 7.3 percent and car production ahead 18 percent — with sustainable growth. Now that the US consumer is de-leveraging and the global appetite for [...]
As a follow up to a recent article, I had a very interesting conversation with a reader. He argued that there is something very important and intangible that economists cannot measure. The will of people. That public will becomes even stronger when a country’s past is ridden with political and economic misery. Think of Germany [...]
I never write about politics. First of all, it bores me. Second, its guaranteed to upset about 53% of my readers, which normally I would not mind, but since I won’t be able to change their mind why bother. Third, and most importantly, my writing is a byproduct of my investment process – I am an [...]