Comments on: The Next Great Bubble: China

By: zzhcct

zzhcct — Tue, 12 May 2009 06:00:44 +0000

To steve, I am so sorry that you have always been living in a so-called god-blessed country, which, in my eyes, is created by U.S.’ partial while powerful media. Illusion, isn’t it?
To Katsenelson:
This is the first time I leave post after your article. I agree with most of your opnions, however, I do not think there will be a great bublle in China in the following 10 years. There might be some bublles, but they are not the great ones. Below is my reasons:
1) while it is true that we Chinese people consume the majority of the raw materials such as iron, copper, etc. However, I think they are driven by the actual demand instead of speculation. At least according to my experience, I think the infrastructure in China, especially in weatern area are far behind the average level.
2) in the next ten years, the central government’s main responsibility is to upgrade the industry structure and the consumption structure. That means almost all the investment will be used to create the tangible social assets and warefell. little room and space for the speculation.
3) take the first two reasons into consideration, banks are the possible machine of creating bublles, however, in the near future, i still believe that the central government will have a steady control over these financial institutions, and thus reduce the possibility.

By: david

david — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:42:57 +0000

As a US taxpayer, I’m delighted to see the Chinese economy coming back to life. A new bubble in China means the US government will have to spend fewer taxpayer dollars on the bailout (or will at least borrow less money from the Chinese). Furthermore, the Chinese are an extraordinary potential market for American goods.
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ugly!!

By: david

david — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 06:13:33 +0000

Vitaliy Katsenelson
you are very funny! how about I say something about you when i know nothing about you?

By: Vitaliy Katsenelson

Vitaliy Katsenelson — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:24:09 +0000

Dear Sami, to answer your question. I’ve never been to China.

By: as

as — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 03:21:09 +0000

Steve you have no idea what you’re talking about.

You’re dreaming because you’re a bitter Yank who lives in a fraud illusion of wealth.

Nothing China is doing is any different to America’s industrial revolution. If those millions of peasant workers don’t have jobs then what do you expect them to do? They certainly can’t live like fat welfare queen like America.

By: Jamie

Jamie — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 02:22:12 +0000

Very little info is out there on: 1)what is the true level of bad debt in the China’s banking system considering many of the enterprises are not making money yet with loan growth at record level (the last bank bail out is said to cost the govnt 56% of GDP?); 2) what’s the implication of that there isn’t really a pension plan /medical care system (or social net) or funds set aside for near 1 billion people who are not part of the China boom? 3) Most importantly what is the house P/E for the Chinese property market compared to U.S. or other major economy, given that its property has had the MOST run as a country in the last 10 years? 4)what is the debt level of the govn’t internally compared to other major economy if any? Am very curious if anyone has some answers to those questions. Thank you.

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 01:46:57 +0000

Glad someone else called this out. China’s economy is a complete fraud to begin with. It’s based on little more than slave labor and generations of repressed millions whose lives have been so miserable, the thought of working for $3 per day in a toxic waste dump is considered a swell deal. Now the banks are acting in ways that would make Countrywide and New Century (remember them? dang it seems like ages…) blush. What a screwball country. This one will take a while to really crash, though.

By: Sami

Sami — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 16:39:43 +0000

have you been to china?
please take the question at face value I am trying to give weight to your opinions only.

By: Dan

Dan — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 07:17:34 +0000

So what do you think the probability is of the latter scenario occurring?

By: Ross Greenspan

Ross Greenspan — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 23:32:20 +0000

Very interesting. Is China the cornered viper that must strike in self-defense?

American and European consumers cannot return to their peak consumption rates soon, and the Chinese consumer can’t match our purchasing power; how does China make use of its capacity? A flat-screen and a designer handbag in every favela?

How do you see this playing out in the intermediate (3-5 yrs.)? Game Theory applied…