Comments on: The pain of mean reversion http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/03/06/the-pain-of-mean-reversion/ Vitaliy Katsenelson blog on the economy, stock market, and stocks. Applying Active Value Investing approach. Tue, 07 Feb 2012 06:09:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Valery Aronov http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/03/06/the-pain-of-mean-reversion/comment-page-1/#comment-190383 Valery Aronov Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:17:10 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=939#comment-190383 Privet Vitalik, I like it very much, for me - regular/average person -it's very compelling. Thank you. Best regards, -Valera A. Privet Vitalik,
I like it very much, for me – regular/average person -it’s very compelling.

Thank you.
Best regards,
-Valera A.

]]> By: Weekly Dividend Investing Roundup - March 21, 2009 | The Dividend Guy Blog http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/03/06/the-pain-of-mean-reversion/comment-page-1/#comment-190367 Weekly Dividend Investing Roundup - March 21, 2009 | The Dividend Guy Blog Sat, 21 Mar 2009 11:03:04 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=939#comment-190367 [...] Mean reversion [...] [...] Mean reversion [...]

]]> By: Ariel http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/03/06/the-pain-of-mean-reversion/comment-page-1/#comment-190335 Ariel Wed, 11 Mar 2009 09:26:45 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=939#comment-190335 Nice analysis Vitaliy. The one thing I would comment about is your "mean earnings" estimate. Ed Easterling from Crestmont Research comes up with current mean earnings in the $60-$65 range. You can see his latest update in the "P/E report" found here: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/content/recent_adds.htm. My own analysis, using Robert Shiller's data (going back to 1871, found here: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm) indicates current mean earnings for the S&P of around $50. This would make the current market valuation very reasonably priced, but not dirt cheap. Ariel Nice analysis Vitaliy.
The one thing I would comment about is your “mean earnings” estimate.
Ed Easterling from Crestmont Research comes up with current mean earnings in the $60-$65 range. You can see his latest update in the “P/E report” found here: http://www.crestmontresearch.com/content/recent_adds.htm.
My own analysis, using Robert Shiller’s data (going back to 1871, found here: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm) indicates current mean earnings for the S&P of around $50. This would make the current market valuation very reasonably priced, but not dirt cheap.

Ariel

]]> By: kevin hinson http://ContrarianEdge.com/2009/03/06/the-pain-of-mean-reversion/comment-page-1/#comment-190329 kevin hinson Mon, 09 Mar 2009 19:08:03 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/?p=939#comment-190329 Hello Mr. Katsenelson, This is a great article (as always). I was curious, how have the long term "average case" earnings changed during past deflationary periods? If our current deleveraging period were to cause a bout of deflation, could the long term "average case" earnings reset (i.e. a step function down) to a new lower average earnings number as opposed to simply continuing on at a reduced slope from today's $70ish average? Thanks again for all your great work that you share on your website and in your book. kevin Hello Mr. Katsenelson,

This is a great article (as always). I was curious, how have the long term “average case” earnings changed during past deflationary periods? If our current deleveraging period were to cause a bout of deflation, could the long term “average case” earnings reset (i.e. a step function down) to a new lower average earnings number as opposed to simply continuing on at a reduced slope from today’s $70ish average?

Thanks again for all your great work that you share on your website and in your book.

kevin

]]>