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Thoughts about the market

Some thoughts about the market.  In today’s market you see some unbelievable opportunities.  For the first time, in a long, long time, we can actually put a full portfolio together where we don’t have to compromise on Quality, Valuation or Growth (QVG) when we pick stocks (please, please, please NOT! a solicitation).  Until recently we had a large cash balance as we could not find enough stocks that met all the QVG criteria.  So, on the positive side, it is a stock picking heaven for value investors.  On the negative side, unless you had cash going into this debacle you have to sell one declined stock to buy another that has declined more. 

I was quoted this weekend in Rocky Mountain News and Denver Post

In the Rocky Mountain News article that discusses mark-to-market accounting, I suggest a “compromise”.  My “compromise” was to put both market-to-market and mark-to-model disclosures in footnotes.  This may not help the banks as according to current rules they’d still have to mark down their assets to mark-to-market.  But my understanding is that insurance companies are regulated on state level and many states do allow the mark-to-model treatment.   The truth is somewhere in the middle but maybe this would shore up investors’ confidence and make analysis somewhat easier.

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  • David Hodge

    Well said Mr. Katsenelson. I agree completely on your compromise, and have been sure to share these same thoughts with the SEC during their open comments on mark to market, as well as the CFA Institute. Now is not the time for such a large shift in our accounting standards, and your compromise solution will still pave the way for ‘full implementation’ at a later date.

    Also, as a fellow adviser I agree completely with your assessment. There may be excellent loss harvesting abilities, depending on the level of hurt now in the portfolio, to take the loss and invest in a peer company meeting QVG criteria to obtain the forthcoming gains. Market looks a lot like 1938 on a long term chart.

    Come out and see us in Grand Rapids sometime!

    Take care,

    Dave Hodge

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