I just came back from a week-long trip in Europe where I spent four days in Vienna and three days in Sofia (Bulgaria). I was surprised to find very few Starbucks (SBUX) shops in Vienna.
Despite traveling extensively around the city I counted only two. Both are primarily frequented by — you guessed it — tourists. I’ve been told SBUX has closed down a number of stores over the years. After visiting London in August and seeing a SBUX on every corner, I figured the firm had spread the decaying American capitalism evenly around the world. Remember, Britain is a nation that drinks tea – or so we’ve been told.
The only explanation I could find was that Austrians look at coffee as an experience. Since they pay a couple euros for a tiny little bitty cup of coffee, they figure they may as well enjoy it by spending an hour drinking it. In America we drink the same amount in a sip. Maybe Austrians want their coffee brought to them. Though I have to confess, service in Europe rivals service I receive in the local Post Office on the day before Christmas.
March 28, 2008 | Posted in Stock Analysis | Read More »
DENVER (MarketWatch) — The certainty that we have to file a tax return every year, that the number of tax returns is rising, tax preparation is getting more complex and thus despite availability of tax preparation software more and more people outsource their tax preparation peaked my interest in Jackson Hewitt. Well, of course, if [...]
March 11, 2008 | Posted in Stock Analysis | Read More »
I find January to be one of the most difficult months for long-term investors. In the spirit of the fine American tradition of making New Year’s resolutions, we feel a need to make a resolution for the stock market (as if it will listen to us) in the form of a prediction.
I don’t dismiss the benefits of forecasting, but we should forecast what we can forecast – market timing is not it. We just listen to our gut (which for all I care could be influenced by the fat content of food consumed at the time of the prediction) and verbalize it in well structured sentences that give our fortune telling much needed sophistication.
Though some do a great job playing market timers on business TV, with the assistance of sound horns and theatrical Oscar-like performances, the advice granted is not worth the damage to your ears or eyes. Timing short-term markets is a loser’s game. Let’s be honest with ourselves – we really don’t know.
The problem with forecasting short-term market movements is that even if you get the economic event right and Lady Luck kisses you on the cheek and you nail its timing, the market may just spit in your direction and chose to ignore it till a later date. Last summer, for example, the housing bubble finally burst, bringing the toxic waste (sub-prime) loans onto the surface. Credit markets froze… and you’d think the stock market would decline? No, the Dow went on to make an all time high, hitting 14,000 and ignoring the problems for months.
Let’s leave the market timing to the media, take a drink of cold water and approach forecasting the right way. Even a long-term investor has to recognize that long-term consists of a series of short-terms. The tsunami of short-term events may change the direction of the long-term. We have to accept that we probably won’t get the timing right, adopt an “I’d rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong” attitude, focus on identifying shorter-term risks that may stand between us and the long-term, and stress test our portfolio for them accordingly.
It would be careless to dismiss the possibility of a recession (some argue that we already are in a recession). Past recessions were caused by excesses of inventory and overcapacity in the corporate sector. As corporations rationalized their inventories and factories, higher unemployment followed – we were in a recession. Excesses were worked out, corporations started to hire, and voila – we were out of the recession.
March 5, 2008 | Posted in The Process | Read More »
This market requires patience and more patience. Identify high quality companies you want to own, determine at what price and wait. That is what I’ve been doing. Also, since profit margins are hitting all time high, the “E” in the P/E equation is very deceiving. Earnings in many cases have been tremendously overly stretched to [...]
March 3, 2008 | Posted in The Process | Read More »
