Comments on: China - Does It Really Matter? http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/ Thu, 20 Nov 2008 20:29:37 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.4 by: M. Toscano http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-2301 Mon, 05 Mar 2007 16:00:40 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-2301 Hi, this is my first comment. first of all congratulations for your website, you have interesting analysis. about China, I think that it remind me like in dot.com period. At that time everything was tech rose up, now everything sell in China/india rise as well. I write from Italy and i saw some italian stocks to rise to very high price levels just because they thought to open business in Asia. Even if results were getting worse... second, i think that with the idea of Us going to slow, market investors assumed that China and Asia will be able to allow USa just to slow... and not get a recession...and later start another period of economic expansion. Recently they realized that China could slow as well and government wants their stock bubble to reduce (before burst), therefore we had some repricing of risl helped by unwinding of carry trading. I have a scenario about stocks: 2007 reminds me like 2000....will happen the same? Only the future can know! But i think is time to have a conservative portfolio. Ciao Hi, this is my first comment. first of all congratulations for your website, you have interesting analysis.
about China, I think that it remind me like in dot.com period. At that time everything was tech rose up, now everything sell in China/india rise as well. I write from Italy and i saw some italian stocks to rise to very high price levels just because they thought to open business in Asia. Even if results were getting worse…

second, i think that with the idea of Us going to slow, market investors assumed that China and Asia will be able to allow USa just to slow… and not get a recession…and later start another period of economic expansion. Recently they realized that China could slow as well and government wants their stock bubble to reduce (before burst), therefore we had some repricing of risl helped by unwinding of carry trading.

I have a scenario about stocks: 2007 reminds me like 2000….will happen the same? Only the future can know! But i think is time to have a conservative portfolio.
Ciao

]]> by: Tomo Ivovic http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-2026 Fri, 02 Mar 2007 21:15:50 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-2026 The US is in decline. The future will be determined by the new powers. Vitaliy should know better. Obviously none of you have seen a crash. YET! The US is in decline.
The future will be determined by the new powers.
Vitaliy should know better.
Obviously none of you have seen a crash.
YET!

]]> by: Vitaliy http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1971 Thu, 01 Mar 2007 17:13:05 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1971 John, it could have that impact. In fact could be a bit deflationary for the U.S. economy, keeping our interest rates lower. Though on another hand, if Chinese decide to sell the U.S. dollars that would drive our rates higher. Reader, purchasing power parity number are not as important when you try to gage the impact of one economy on another. Dan (chinalawblog.com). I don’t disagree with you. There is a difference between a stock and a company and thus there is a difference between a stock market and the economy. As I understand the Chinese stock market got fairly speculative and expensive over last year. High valuation works like a one-sided leverage – good news doesn’t much to it (it is already priced into it) – stocks don’t go up much, but the bad news sends it down in a Chinese second. You are arguing the “bad” news was not really bad news. You might be right about that. As I’ve said many times before we’ll know about the problems with Chinese market not from government statistics (which you cannot trust), but from anecdotal evidence of companies doing business in China or simply after the fact. John, it could have that impact. In fact could be a bit deflationary for the U.S. economy, keeping our interest rates lower. Though on another hand, if Chinese decide to sell the U.S. dollars that would drive our rates higher.

Reader, purchasing power parity number are not as important when you try to gage the impact of one economy on another.

Dan (chinalawblog.com). I don’t disagree with you. There is a difference between a stock and a company and thus there is a difference between a stock market and the economy. As I understand the Chinese stock market got fairly speculative and expensive over last year. High valuation works like a one-sided leverage – good news doesn’t much to it (it is already priced into it) – stocks don’t go up much, but the bad news sends it down in a Chinese second. You are arguing the “bad” news was not really bad news. You might be right about that. As I’ve said many times before we’ll know about the problems with Chinese market not from government statistics (which you cannot trust), but from anecdotal evidence of companies doing business in China or simply after the fact.

]]> by: China Law Blog http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1967 Thu, 01 Mar 2007 14:33:36 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1967 China's stock market plunge is not a reflection on China's economy. It was a reflection on rumors of new stock trading and taxation laws. For years, China's markets went down while its economy boomed. China's stocks are NOT a good indicator of China's economy as a whole. China’s stock market plunge is not a reflection on China’s economy. It was a reflection on rumors of new stock trading and taxation laws. For years, China’s markets went down while its economy boomed. China’s stocks are NOT a good indicator of China’s economy as a whole.

]]> by: Reader http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1944 Thu, 01 Mar 2007 03:20:44 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1944 Really???? According to CIA report dated on 2-8-2007. China had an est. 2006 GDP (purchase power parity) of $10Trillion only second to US and EU. France had only $1.87Trillion. Really???? According to CIA report dated on 2-8-2007. China had an est. 2006 GDP (purchase power parity) of $10Trillion only second to US and EU. France had only $1.87Trillion.

]]> by: john h abeles md http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1928 Wed, 28 Feb 2007 14:53:32 +0000 http://ContrarianEdge.com/2007/02/28/china-does-it-really-matter/#comment-1928 One could argue that a Chinese economic slowdown -- and a softening demand for energy therfore -- could lower domestic oil prices and hence enhance our economy. One could argue that a Chinese economic slowdown — and a softening demand for energy therfore — could lower domestic oil prices and hence enhance our economy.

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