In the last century, every prolonged bull market, which ran about 16 years, was followed by a similar length bear market. I believe this is not a random pattern. It takes a long time for an emotional cycle to reach its climax, and it takes a similar time to reverse that cycle and drive valuations to the other extreme. In a bull market rising prices intensify optimism and euphoria. The more persistent the ascent the more certain investors become of their abilities. As the perception of risk gets duller, even the most risk averse become risk seekers.
Demoting General Motors
May 12, 2005 – Minyaville.com
Excellent article on General Motors (GM) in the May 9th edition of Business Week. Here are some important points and my thoughts:
GM is saddled with $1,600 of legacy costs per vehicle – retiree health and pension benefit costs.
Because of 15 year old union agreements, GM must run plants at 80% capacity, [...]
The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: Cendant
May 10, 2005 – Minyanville.com
The Good:
The company increased the dividend 22% to $0.11 – resulting in a yield of 2.1%.
CD will be buying close to 4% of its shares and it is all coming from free cash flows (not from leveraging the balance sheet). CD expects to continue doing that well into 2006. From [...]